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Fred Harrison

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Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010 Kindle Edition

by Fred Harrison (Author) Format: Kindle Edition

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In the two and a half years since the first edition appeared, events have unfolded as predicted. In 2005 the consensus among forecasters was that the boom in house prices would cool to an annual 2 or 3% rise over the following years. In fact, in keeping with the ‘winner’s curse’ phase of the cycle described by the author, prices have risen by more than 10% per annum in Britain.
Harrison’s first book, The Power in the Land, predicted the early 1990s recession. Boom Bust, warned that investing in property is not always a safe bet, because the market is subject to a sharp downturn at the end of a remarkably regular 18-year cycle. If history repeats, the next tipping point is due at end of 2007 or early 2008. This forecast is based on a careful study of the evidence from property markets, not only in the UK, over the last 200 years. If he is right, Gordon Brown’s claim, made in his 2007 Budget speech, that ‘we will never return to the old boom and bust’ will be proved false.
The reason for the instability, Harrison explains, is not the housing market itself but the land market on which all buildings stand. Land is in fixed supply – as Mark Twain noted: ‘They’re not making any more of it’. Therefore, as the demand for land for new homes and offices rises with population growth and economic expansion, market forces, which normally increase supply to reduce prices, have the reverse effect: prices rise. This encourages speculation, with banks lending more against escalating asset values and reinforcing the upward spiral. Under existing government policies, the only way land prices can be brought back to affordable levels is a slump, undermining the banking system and causing widespread unemployment and repossessions. This is exactly what is happening in America with the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market. The run on Northern Rock shows the UK economy is not immune.
The author reveals that the government’s monetary policy only has a marginal impact on land speculation, but as the Bank of England raises interest rates to curb house price inflation, the main victim is the first-time buyer and the productive economy, especially small businesses. The only way to neutralise the boom bust cycle is through a reform of taxation, he claims.

Print length

288 pages
Language

English
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On Kindle Scribe
Publication date

16 July 2012
File size

1459 KB
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Review

"There are some fascinating insights into cycles, property and rents." --John Calverley, chief economist, American Express Bank

"For anyone seeking to understand the vagaries of the housing market, this is a fascinating read." --Sunday Telegraph

"Harrison's book is a formidable challenge to the apologists of the status quo." --American Journal of Economics and Sociology

"[Harrison] does make a case for the existence of an 18-year business cycle, which he links to speculation in the property market." --Financial Times

"The essence of its argument is that the majority of current property prices reflect land value rather than building costs." --Professional Investor

"Does Harrisonreally know something we don't?" --The Mail on Sunday

"Fascinating insights into cycles, property and rents." --Institute of Economic Affairs

About the Author

Fred Harrison is the research director of the Land Research Trust in London. He is the author of Ricardo's Law: House Prices & the Great Tax Clawback Scam and Wheels of Fortune: Self-Funding Infrastructure and the Free Market Case for a Land Tax.

Product details

ASIN ‏ : ‎ B008M0QJIM
Publisher ‏ : ‎ SHEPHEARD-WALWYN (PUBLISHERS) LTD (16 July 2012)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
File size ‏ : ‎ 1459 KB
Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Sticky notes ‏ : ‎ On Kindle Scribe
Print length ‏ : ‎ 288 pages

Best Sellers Rank: 208,588 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- 29 in International Business (Kindle Store)
- 58 in Business Writing (Kindle Store)
- 82 in Economic Conditions (Kindle Store)

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bondy

Logic art of correct thinking

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 3 August 2020

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Long winded at times and at face value political suicide for any political party but dig down and the seeds of a new utopia for all are there. Tax on production destroys growth and future investment, our present system. Tax on land rent is virtually non existent, profits accrue without an ounce of effort. Zero tax on wages over your lifetime well offset any capital gains from property i.e. your home over the years.

Alan Longbon

An excellent book and must have for any investor

Reviewed in the United States on 22 December 2013

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The author has found a very important and useful cycle that flows through our economies and evidence that it exists and works is irrefutable. The property cycle and the effect of land taxes should be part of standard course work taught in all high schools and universities.

The message and credibility is a little lost though due to colourful language and personal attacks on various politicians but perhaps then the readership would not be so wide when the aim is to get the message out to as many people as possible?

Anyway a ground breaking book and a must have for all investors.

2 people found this helpful

Veselin Petrov

Excellent!

Reviewed in the United States on 8 December 2019

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18 years is just the enough time period to forget the last market crash. Which is the precondition for the next surprising tipping point.

Tara Davies

So far so true

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 16 August 2009

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I read this book in early 2006 - Hardcover. In hindsight, it is a horoscope for our future financial wellbeing. It predicted the banking crisis, the fall of banks and corporations previously perceived as too big to fail, with great insight and accuracy.
It is well written with easy chunks that allow the following of threads, historical references, and explainations of financial terms.

Read this now and protect your future wealth.

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Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010 Kindle Edition

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